Is Aotearoa on track for a million te reo speakers by 2040?

Te Kanawa Wilson was the overall winner of Pei Te Hurinui with his Aunty Ariana Paul (great moko of Pei Te Hurinui) and Vicki Wehi first winner of the competition in 1977. Photo / Che Wilson
An ongoing study has revealed one in 25 people in Aotearoa speaks te reo Māori, with tamariki picking up the language more than adults.
Research centre Te Pūnaha Matatini has conducted a project called Te Ara o te Reo Māori, which analyses data on the health and revitalisation of te reo Māori.
Te Pūnaha Matatini rangahau Michael Miller (Ngāti Tūwharetoa) said the model he was developing would take into account the rates at which people are learning or losing the language.
He said by combining the collected data, the project aimed to predict how the number of speakers would evolve and estimate how many speakers Aotearoa might expect in 20 or 30 years.
“Most of the trajectories we’ve been looking at show that the language is on the path to being revitalised … In particular, whether we’re on track to meeting the goal of one million speakers by 2040.”
The Government has committed to the revitalisation of te reo Māori by setting national targets, including the aim of having one million speakers of te reo Māori at any level of proficiency by 2040.
Miller said he’s looking at the revitalisation efforts of other indigenous languages, in particular Welsh and Irish Gaelic, “what the effects have been on those languages and looking to see how we can incorporate those and what effects those interventions would have on te reo Māori”.
He noted the growing momentum within the Māori community as a positive indicator of the language’s continued growth and emphasised the importance of widespread use of the language in media, schools, and social settings.
“As more people see the language being normalised, then it’s likely that these people will start learning the language as well to help the language become revitalised.”
Over the past 40 years, various interventions have been proposed and implemented to address the decline of te reo Māori.
Dr Rachael Ka’ai-Mahuta (Ngāti Porou, Ngāi Tahu), co-lead of the Te Pūnaha Matatini project, said that when the research project was conceived in 2018, the number of speakers was still decreasing. This concern led to the development of the project.
“So this project will collate and analyse and transform the data on te reo Māori into an assessment of the current and future trajectory of the language.”
She said they hoped this would help to inform Māori communities but also the Government about the best possible interventions and resources in the long-term survival of te reo Māori.
“I firmly believe in the future of te reo Māori, I don’t believe that they’re all in the death narratives around te reo Māori.” hoped